Ontario Sportsbooks Bet Big on Politics: A New Gambling Frontier

Political lines are blurring as Ontario dives into political betting ahead of the February 27 provincial election and the looming federal race to replace Justin Trudeau. As top sportsbook sites like BetMGM and FanDuel introduce odds on everything from election winners to the next Governor-General, Ontario is stepping into uncharted territory. The province, already a leader in sports betting, is now exploring how much Ontarians are willing to wager on political outcomes.

Political Fever Hits Ontario's Betting Boards

While sports betting has been legal in Ontario since 2022, political betting is a fresh addition. BetMGM has already set odds for the upcoming provincial election, where Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives (PCs) dominate the polls. Instead of betting on the overall winner, the sportsbook offers odds on who might take second place, with the Liberals at -278, NDP at +175, and the Greens at a distant +10,000.

But it doesn’t stop at party wins. BetMGM is also offering unique bets like the odds on the next Governor-General, with astronaut Chris Hadfield at +600 and Jordan Peterson at +2,000. According to the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO), this move indicates that sportsbooks see political betting as the next big thing in the province’s $1.6 billion gambling industry.

Why Politics, Why Now?

The timing isn’t a coincidence. With Ontario's election days away and the federal Liberal leadership race gaining momentum, sportsbooks are tapping into political uncertainty. Political expert Amanda Galbraith told Casino.org, “The markets suggest most Canadians see a Mark Carney win in the Liberal leadership as a done deal—but they’re not sold on him beating Pierre Poilievre in a general election.” This kind of unpredictability is precisely what appeals to bettors.

Ontario’s well-established sports betting culture also plays a role. With over 1.5 million active bettors in the province, BetMGM believes there’s potential for political betting to thrive. “There could be a lot of bumps on the road in the coming weeks,” a company spokesperson said, suggesting cautious optimism about this new venture.

Early Reactions: A Slow Start

While political betting is gaining attention, the initial uptake has been modest. “There’s interest, but these are small markets and only in Ontario,” a BetMGM representative noted. Political betting doesn't quite deliver the same rush as sports, but it’s still catching on. Ontarians are already sharing their thoughts on social media, with some poking fun at long-shot bets like the Green Party’s +10,000 odds.

The cautious interest might stem from how new this concept is in North America. While political betting is a massive market in the UK, it’s uncharted territory on this side of the Atlantic. iGaming Ontario reported $14 billion in wagers for 2024 Q3, mostly on sports, suggesting room for growth if political betting finds its niche.

Staying Above Board: Ontario’s Strict Regulations

The AGCO oversees political betting in Ontario, ensuring that sportsbooks like BetMGM and FanDuel follow the rules. Strict regulations mean capped bets, transparent odds, and payouts based on official election results. The standards that have made Ontario a leader in online gaming are being applied to this new market.

However, not everyone is on board. Critics worry that turning elections into betting markets could undermine their seriousness. Despite these concerns, Ontario views political betting as a natural extension of its mature and regulated gambling industry.

What’s at Stake for Ontario’s Betting Market?

For sportsbooks, political betting offers a chance to attract a new crowd—those who follow polls and debates as closely as sports scores. If it succeeds, other provinces might follow suit. In the U.S., where political betting is largely restricted, Ontario's more relaxed regulations make it an ideal testing ground for this new trend.

There are risks involved. A 2024 study by JAMA highlighted a 23% increase in gambling-related searches since sports betting became mainstream. Ontario is keeping political betting as a niche offering for now, closely monitoring its impact.

A New Kind of Gamble

Ontario’s move into political betting is a bold experiment. With provincial elections approaching and leadership races heating up, BetMGM and FanDuel are testing whether Ontarians will embrace political odds as enthusiastically as their favorite sports teams. It’s too early to say if this trend will stick, but political betting adds a fresh twist to Ontario’s already vibrant gambling scene for now.